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Introduction

The occupational hazards of tournament pool play mean at this point of the season-ending championships we’re often left puzzled, searching around for a mathematical tool and trying to work out the complex qualification scenarios. But today's game between Alexander Zverev and Auger-Aliassime, fortunately, is easy. It's a direct elimination: the successful player earns a final four battle against Carlos Alcaraz at this championship finale; the defeated player heads out.

Zverev is the favourite for this: the third-ranked player is the more accomplished player, has claimed the title at this tournament on two prior occasions and is ahead in their direct encounters with six victories against three defeats, securing victories in both the games they've played on an indoor hard court.

But … this is the surface on which the Canadian has won the bulk of his trophies, he is full of confidence after his compelling comeback against Ben Shelton on Wednesday and he defeated Zverev in the US Open initial phase in late summer. Plus, the playing speed is higher in the host city than at the US Open venue, which works even more in AA’s favor.

If the German player is reserved, similar to his performance against the Italian, and Auger-Aliassime takes it to the German with his powerful serves and fearless play, it might very well be the young Canadian – the earlier standout who was once in line ahead of Alcaraz and Sinner to take over from the Big Three – who secures the dubious honour of facing the top-ranked player the next day.

The match starts: at approximately 8:30 PM in Turin, 7:30 PM in the UK.